NZ Economy Helped by Dairy Farms — Thriving, Subsidy Free, Grass Based

4. January 2008 by P. Leslie Riley.

Mississippi’s once prosperous dairy industry is at crisis levels & may not exist much longer. Commissioner Spell in the Mississippi State Debate said this was a natural consequence of market forces.

Conventional “wisdom” big governement/ big corporation/ big land grant-USDA “experts” agree with this. The belief that they share with all is :
1) Dairy farms must be on a mega scale, confinment oriented, in dry climates, corporate owned heavily financed & with heavy inputs. And that there will be fewer and fewer.
Because of this, Mississippi cannot compete with new non-traditional dairy areas like California, Arizona, Wesr Texas, and Idaho where the arid conditions are “ideal” to put 4000 or 5000 head confinement dairy operations on 40 to 100 acres. Hire lots of help & “efficiently” run it like a factory.
2) This same folks also push for heavy subsidies on milk to “help” family farms ( they never quite say why the number of farms has decreased in direct proportion to the size/ number of dairies)
3) And, “conventional wisdom” is that Agriculture is at worst an impediment and at best a afterthought/ minor component of a healthy & growing economy.

Turning this “conventional wisdom” on it’s head with facts is New Zealand.
New Zealand’s dairy farms are almost exclusively grass based/ family owned
New Zealand got rid of subsidies 10 years ago — and are thriving.
And, according to the article below, New Zealand’s economy is in a slow down, but it being proped up by : the dairy industry.  Go Figure.

There is no reason that Mississippi can’t have a thriving dairy industry again that offers prosperity for hard working family farmers; produces healthier milk, cheese, butter, etc. for  Mississippians (which would, in turn, drive health care cost down); provides better Stewardship of God’s Creation; and is a vital part of economic growth for rural communities.

BUT, as we all know, one definition of insantiy is to continue doing the same thing, the same way, and expecting different results.

 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=195&objectid=10484890

 Dairy bonanza likely to soften slowdown

5:00AM Tuesday January 01, 2008
By Brian Fallow 

The housing market is at a standstill.

The country ended 2007 with some respectable numbers on its economic report card.

The economy expanded 3.3 per cent in the year ended September, while inflation over the same period was 1.8 per cent.

The unemployment rate is 3.5 per cent, a record low.

The terms of trade - relative prices of the kinds of things we export compared with the kinds of things we import - are the most favourable since 1974.

The Government’s coffers are overflowing.

But the outlook is less rosy than these numbers would suggest. On a quarterly basis growth peaked back in March.

The economy expanded as much in the first half of 2007 as it had over the previous year and a half.

But it has slowed markedly since then as households, whose consumption represents more than 60 per cent of economic activity, battle higher mortgage rates and global inflation in oil and food prices.

The consensus among economic forecasters is that private consumption growth will run around 1.6 or 1.7 per cent through 2008 and 2009, the weakest rate since 2000.

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That is in spite of household incomes being underpinned by brisk wage growth, the prospect of tax cuts and a tsunami of dairy cash.

The problem is that the necessities of life - housing, food and energy - are gobbling up a larger share of people’s incomes, leaving less to spend on other things.

The housing market has flipped from one in which house prices were climbing and borrowing costs were low to one where house prices are flatlining but borrowing costs are rising.

After doubling over the the previous six years house prices, as measured by the Real Estate Institute’s national median, have been going sideways since May.

But the long boom has pushed the average house price to six times the average household disposable income, nearly twice its long-term average.

Households with mortgages are consequently carrying much more debt relative to their incomes than they used to and are more exposed to interest rates.

And with fear and suspicion now the dominant sentiment in international credit markets, the days when New Zealand banks could tap cheap money offshore to fund home loans are over.

Two-year fixed mortgage rates are now the highest they have been for nearly 10 years.

The average mortgage rate being paid is around 8 per cent, the highest since October 1998, and the Reserve Bank expects it to approach 9 per cent by 2009.

About 30 per cent of all fixed-rate mortgages, representing a quarter of all mortgage debt, come up for an interest rate reset over the next 12 months. At currently available mortgage rates these borrowers will face increases of 0.7 to 1.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile the plateau in house prices is expected to turn off a phenomenon which has turbocharged the domestic spending side of the economy in recent years: the wealth effect.

That is when people borrow and spend some fraction - a few cents in the dollar - of the increase in the value of the equity in their homes, allowing spending to grow faster than incomes.

The biggest new factor on the positive side of the income ledger is the prospect of a bumper dairy payout.

It will pump about $4 billion more cash into the economy than last season, says Westpac chief economist Brendan O’Donovan. And it will all get spent, he believes.

While some farmers will take the opportunity to reduce their debt, others will borrow to expand their operations. Rural land prices have already risen sharply as farmers do what they always do and capitalise improved returns, O’Donaovan says.

“In aggregate they won’t be paying down debt, they will be leveraging up.”

But it takes time for higher farm incomes to flow through the rural towns to the big cities.

And every silver lining has its cloud.

The global “agflation” that is boosting dairy farmers’ incomes is also making trips to the supermarket an increasingly expensive business.

Likewise the tightness of the labour market underpinning wage growth is partly because of a dwindling of net migration inflows as a widening income gap lures more and more New Zealanders across the Tasman.

The Reserve Bank forecast inflation to be above 3 per cent all through this year.

Crucially, it also expects it to remain in the top quartile of its target band of 1 to 3 per cent through 2009 as well, even with interest rates and the dollar remaining at their current elevated levels.

Those projections assume $1.5 billion worth of tax cuts, which may well prove to be on the low side, and do not include the impact of the emissions trading scheme on transport fuel costs from the start to 2009.

This makes for an environment in which the central bank has little”headroom” to accommodate further upward pressure on inflation.

Yet the international environment might deliver just that.

The global credit crunch could well get worse before it gets better.

If 2007 is anything to go by, when global risk aversion goes up the kiwi dollar goes down and investors lose their appetite for the carry trades which underpin the exchange rate.

That might be blessed relief for exporters but it pushes up the cost of imported goods.

The biggest uncertainty overhanging the economy in 2008 is how the global credit crunch, arising from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, will play out. Rising global interest rates would be bad news for us, a country up to our neck in debt.

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This story was found at:
Copyright ©2007, APN Holdings NZ Limited

Posted in Foriegn Agriculture, Alternative Crops & Enterprises, Organic vs Conventional Faming, Over Regulation of Agriculture, Sale of Meat Direct to Consumers, Lester Spell, Mississippi Politics, Grass Farming, Dairy Farming, How Agriculture affects Everything else, Smaller Government, Freedom in Agriculture, Rural Development, Farm Subsidies, Difficult Issues in Agriculture & Rural Life, Agrarianism, Big vs Small Farms, Mississippi Agricultural News, Family farm Opportunities | Print | No Comments »

Post Election Statement from the Wasp that Won’t Die

7. November 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

Support Idealism over Cynicism — Vote Riley for Agriculture
www.RileyForAgriculture.com -
A Conservative Voice for Rural Mississippi - Smaller Government & Safer Food for All

Dear Friends of Freedom & Farming in Mississippi,

I called Commissioner Spell this morning to congratulate him on his victory. When I got off the phone, I heard Dr. Marty Wiseman ( Director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State) being interviewed on the radio about the election results and our race came up.

Dr. Wiseman, told the host that “third party candidate is like a red wasp. They sting & it hurts, but then they go away & die.”

As Mark Twain quipped, “Reports of my demise have been greatly exagerated.”  I think Dr. Wiseman may need to go over to MSU’s entemology dept & check his facts. Unlike bees, wasps do not die after they sting and can sting multiple times.I am writing to thank the voters of Mississippi for giving me nearly 50,000 votes (7%) – even though we did not have the resources or name recognition of my two opponents; to thank the handful of media outlets that gave our campaign a fair hearing; to let people know that Les Riley and the Constitution Party have a lot to build on and will be heard from again; and to declare victory on several fronts — even though we weren’t able to get enough votes to take the office this time.1) We won because we did our duty. Stonewall Jackson & John Quincy Adams both made similar statements along the lines of “Duty is ours, results are God’s”.

2) We won because we introduced ideas & principles about the role of government that were long since thought of as forgotten.

3) We won because we ran a postive, honourable, issues-based campaign. We pushed our ideals & our vision. In this age of vicious character assasinations and surface level marketing of a candidate like any other product we have done things the right way.

4) We won because we have given Mississippians something to vote for rather than merely something to vote against.

And

5) We won because we have made so many new friends and built a grassroots coalition that we can work with to have a postitive impact on our state for years to come .

So, again, I want to thank the people that supported the Riley for Agriculture campaign and to let people know that the Mississippi Constitution Party & Les Riley will not be “dying & going away” anytime soon. I hope to be a voice for reform in farm policy, for limited government, for rural development & for safe food.

And the Constitutition Party may be stinging again quicker than the experts think.

Thank you again,

Paul Leslie (Les) Riley,Jr.

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Posted in 3rd Parties, Constitution Party, Lester Spell, Rickey Cole, Media Coverage, Riley for Agriculture Campaign, Smaller Government, How Agriculture affects Everything else, Mississippi Politics, Freedom in Agriculture | Print | No Comments »

Statewide Results — by County

7. November 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

Agriculture Commissioner - General

County Precincts R. Cole L. Spell (i) P. Riley

Posted in Rickey Cole, Lester Spell, Media Coverage, Riley for Agriculture Campaign, Mississippi Politics | Print | No Comments »

I can’t claim to be the tallest . . .

31. October 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

  

State Snapshot

Previous Photo Next Photo

SHARING A LAUGH — Prior to a Tuesday night debate at MSU, state agriculture and commerce commissioner candidates (from left) Leslie Riley Jr., Lester Spell and Rickey Cole shared a laugh backstage at the university’s McComas Hall theater. Spell is the Republican incumbent, while Riley and Cole are candidates of the Constitutional and Democratic parties, respectively. Sponsored by the student Stennis-Montgomery Association, the debate drew an audience of approximately 260.  (Oct 24, 2007 Photo by Kristen Hines)

Posted in Rickey Cole, Lester Spell, Media Coverage, Riley for Agriculture Campaign | Print | No Comments »

Right of Mississippi (Conservative/ Republican) web site predicts 20%

30. October 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

Six months ago no one thought we would get over 1-2%. Now a Republican site is guessing that I’ll get 20%. We are gaining ground, keep putting the word out.

http://rightofmississippi.wordpress.com/2007/10/30/2007-mississippi-statewide-election-predictions/

2007 Mississippi Statewide Election Predictions
Right of Mississippi 2007 Predictions:

This is on record 7 days out, we have carefully studied all of these campaigns for nearly a year now and this is our best guess on the final outcome.

Governor: VERY SAFE GOP

Haley Barbour: 58.4%

John Arthur Eaves Jr: 41.6%

Lt. Gov: SAFE GOP

Phil Bryant: 56.1%

Jamie Franks: 43.9%

SOS: SAFE GOP

Delbert Hosemann: 55.9%

Rob Smith: 44.1%

Attorney General: SAFE DEM

Jim Hood: 55.3%

Al Hopkins: 44.7%

State Treasurer: VERY SAFE GOP

Tate Reeves: 60.1%

Shawn O’Hara: 39.9%

State Auditor: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/LEAN GOP

Stacey Pickering: 51.8%

Mike Sumrall: 48.2%

Insurance Commissioner: TOO CLOSE TO CALL/SLIGHT LEAN DEM

Gary Anderson: 51.0%

Mike Chaney: 49.0%

Commissioner of Agriculture: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Lester Spell: 40.4%

Rickey Cole: 39.5%

Les Riley: 20.1%

The 3 of us here at ROM personally called through our address books and got responses from about 50 voters, hardly a random sample but it helped us please feel free to discuss and disagree, things could change in the next week and we will show updates if we make them. Make your own scorecard and we can compare in a week.

Posted in Lester Spell, Rickey Cole, 3rd Parties, Media Coverage, Riley for Agriculture Campaign, Mississippi Politics | Print | No Comments »

Sid Salter’s Blog gives us nice plug

30. October 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

Sid Salter is the political columnist/ editor for the Clarion Ledger & his column is published statewide. Mr. Salter has been very fair & balanced in its coverage of the Ag race. The most recent entry in his blog is no exception ( Salter’s blog post below) . . . let’s just hope he’s wrong about the 5 to 8% and we even get in excess of the 20 % that Right of Mississippi ( a Conservative Republican site) is guessing. We can still win. Keep working !
( the post about the Ag Com race is about half way down the page)

http://www.clarionledger.com/misc/blogs/ssalter/sidblog.html

Les Riley may well decide the Ag Commissioner’s race

While most of the attention has been on incumbent Republican Agriculture Commissioner Lester Spell and his Democratic challenger Rickey Cole, the fact is that the deciding factor in that race may be Constitution Party candidate Les Riley.

Riley, who is a legitimate candidate with the ability to run the Department of Agriculture and Commerce, is not your average third party or fringe candidate. Riley is working hard, campaigning across a wide area with limited resources and has a following.

Superior resources and incumbency should be enough to re-elect Spell. But Spell’s consistent policy of throwing fellow Republicans, state legislators, Mississippi State University and anyone else he can under the bus by blaming them for the failed Mississippi Beef Processors plant will make it hard for a lot of Republicans to vote for Spell. There are a significant number of Republicans telling me they just can’t vote for him.

That leaves them in the position of either voting for Cole, a staunch Democrat, or for Riley. I think a lot of frustrated Republicans may park their vote with Riley.

That could put Spell shy of winning a 50 percent plus one vote majority needed to win and throw the vote into the Democrat-controlled House, which will almost certainly elect Cole.

If Riley can take from 5 to 8 percent of the vote, Spell will be in trouble.

Posted in Lester Spell, Rickey Cole, Beef Plant, Constitution Party, 3rd Parties, Riley for Agriculture Campaign, Media Coverage, Mississippi Politics | Print | No Comments »

Clarion Ledger/ LWV Voter Guide Answers

30. October 2007 by P. Leslie Riley.

Statewide Voter Gude Answers

Please forward to everyone in Mississippi who you know who is interested in making an informed vote in this election.

The Clarion Ledger & League of Women Voters published their voter’s guide this past Sunday ( Oct. 28). In additon to the short profiles that went out with the paper, longer, detailed Q&A’s were done with all statewide candidates & published here :http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPECIAL02&template=vg

My particular comments are here :
http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071028/SPECIAL02/71026054/1224

Also, if you have not watched the videos of all statewide candidates, please watch & forward. Myself & my Democrat & Republican opponents are at the bottom.http://www.etv.state.ms.us/televisio…ates/index.htm

Posted in Lester Spell, Rickey Cole, Constitution Party, Media Coverage, Riley for Agriculture Campaign, Mississippi Politics | Print | No Comments »